Prediction markets
Every token launched here comes with markets betting on whether it will succeed. You stake USDG on YES or NO, and if you are right you take a share of the losing side.
How parimutuel betting works
These are parimutuel markets, the same structure used in horse racing. There is no order book and no counterparty to match with. Everyone's stake goes into one of two pools, and when the market resolves the winning pool splits the losing pool in proportion to their stakes.
A worked example
Say a market closes with 1,000 USDG on YES and 3,000 USDG on NO, and YES wins.
| Step | Amount |
|---|---|
| Losing (NO) pool | 3,000 USDG |
| Platform fee — 2% of the losing pool only | −60 USDG |
| Distributed to winners | 2,940 USDG |
| If you staked 100 USDG on YES (10% of the pool) | 100 + 294 = 394 USDG |
You always get your own stake back on top of your winnings. The fee is charged only on the losing pool — winners never pay a fee on their own stake.
Market types
Two markets are created automatically with every launch:
| Market | Resolves YES if… | Deadline |
|---|---|---|
| Will it graduate? | The bonding curve completes and migrates to Uniswap | 7 days |
| Will it reach 200 buyers? | 200 unique addresses buy directly from the curve | 7 days |
| Up or Down | The price is higher at the deadline than when the round opened | 24 hours |
Up or Down markets
Any token with a Uniswap pool can have an Up-or-Down market, not just tokens launched here. Paste a contract address on the Predictions page and it is checked automatically.
A round runs for 24 hours and settles on a 30-minute average price, not the price at one instant. Averaging is what stops a single large trade near the deadline deciding the outcome.
A token only qualifies if its pool holds at least $5,000 of liquidity near the current price. Liquidity parked far from the trading price does not count, because it would not stop anyone moving the price. A pool that fails this is declined with the figure it actually measured, and can be added again once it grows.
Additional market types exist in the protocol — market cap thresholds and survival checks — and may be enabled over time.
Graduation rounds
Most tokens miss the 7-day window. When the graduation market runs out, the question does not close for good — anyone can open the next 7-day round from the token page. The button appears the moment the previous round expires, and opening a round also settles the one before it, so the whole thing is a single transaction. Winners on the old round can claim as soon as anyone opens the new one.
Round 2 is deliberately worded as a different question: will it graduate in the next 7 days. A token that already failed once is genuinely less likely to graduate, so the odds should start skewed rather than at 50/50 — and a bettor has to be able to see which round they are pricing.
There is no cap on rounds, but only one can be open at a time and a new one cannot start until the previous has settled NO — so a token produces at most one graduation market per 7 days. A round that settled YES ends the question permanently, and a voided round is not followed automatically.
How markets resolve
Resolution reads on-chain state directly. There is no oracle, no reporting committee, and no admin with a deciding vote. The contract checks the token's own curve — did it complete, how many unique buyers did it record — and settles accordingly.
Anyone can trigger resolution after the deadline, and doing so is idempotent, so it cannot be double-resolved. Because the check is a pure read of state that already exists, the outcome is the same whoever calls it.
Void markets and refunds
A market can resolve VOID, in which case everyone is refunded their full stake and no fee is taken.
There is also a special case for one-sided markets: if nobody bet on the losing side, there is nothing to distribute, so winners simply receive their stake back and the fee is waived entirely.
Claiming winnings
Winnings are not sent automatically — you claim them. Open Portfolio and any resolved market you won will show a claim button. There is no deadline on claiming.
Claims can also be made on someone else's behalf. This is safe by design: funds always go to the person who placed the bet, never to whoever triggers the claim.
What to watch out for
- Betting closes at the deadline. Once it passes you cannot enter or exit — there is no selling your position early as on an order-book market.
- Your stake is locked until resolution. Placed bets cannot be withdrawn or reduced.
- Late odds can be poor. Betting into a heavily one-sided pool means splitting a small losing pot among many winners.
- Most tokens do not graduate. Consider that base rate before betting YES on graduation.